What Are the Odds of Winning the New Jersey Lottery?
Written by Jackpot Staff
January 23, 2025
Every week, millions of New Jersey residents purchase lottery tickets, each hoping to become the next headline-making jackpot winner. But behind the excitement and dreams of instant wealth lies a mathematical reality that few players fully understand. What are your actual chances of winning the New Jersey Lottery? Are some games significantly better bets than others? And how do these odds compare to other life events?
This comprehensive guide breaks down the real odds of winning every New Jersey lottery game, from the astronomical Powerball and Mega Millions jackpots to the more favorable state-specific games and scratch-offs. Whether you're a regular player or just occasionally try your luck, understanding these probabilities will help you make more informed decisions about your lottery participation.
New Jersey Lottery Games
The New Jersey Lottery offers players a diverse portfolio of games, each with its own probability structure and prize potential. Since its inception in 1970, the lottery has contributed over $34.7 billion to state programs and services, with fiscal year 2025 alone generating $3.34 billion in sales and contributing $1.08 billion to the state's public employee pension system.
New Jersey's lottery options fall into three main categories:
- Multi-state jackpot games (Powerball and Mega Millions)
- State-specific draw games (Jersey Cash 5, Pick-6, Cash4Life, Pick-3, and Pick-4)
- Scratch-off instant games (hundreds of options at various price points)
By law, approximately 50% of lottery revenues are returned to players as prizes, while at least 30% must be dedicated to state institutions and education. The remaining funds cover operational costs and retailer commissions, with the state's 6,500 lottery retailers earning nearly $200 million in commissions and bonuses in fiscal year 2025.
Multi-State Game Odds
Powerball Odds
Powerball represents the classic "dream big" lottery game, with jackpots that regularly climb into hundreds of millions of dollars. But the odds of winning reflect this enormous prize potential:
- Jackpot odds: 1 in 292,201,338
- Overall odds of winning any prize: 1 in 24.87
- Cost per play: $2
To put these odds in perspective, you are significantly more likely to:
- Be struck by lightning (1 in 1,222,000)
- Become president of the United States (1 in 32.6 million)
- Score a hole-in-one as an amateur golfer (1 in 12,500)
Powerball drawings occur every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday at 10:59 PM ET. Players select five numbers between 1 and 69 for the white balls and one number between 1 and 26 for the red Powerball.
Mega Millions Odds
Mega Millions underwent significant changes in April 2025, with the ticket price increasing from $2 to $5 per play. These changes improved the odds structure and prize potential:
- Jackpot odds: 1 in 290,472,336 (improved from 1 in 302,575,350)
- Overall odds of winning any prize: 1 in 23
- Cost per play: $5
- Starting jackpot: $50 million (up from $20 million)
The new Mega Millions format includes an automatic multiplier for non-jackpot prizes, multiplying them by 2X, 3X, 4X, 5X, or 10X. This change has dramatically increased the value of secondary prizes, with non-jackpot prizes increasing by 343% compared to the old format.
New Jersey has experienced remarkable success with these multi-state games. The state's largest lottery win occurred in March 2024, when a single ticket purchased in Neptune Township won a $1.13 billion Mega Millions jackpot - the largest prize in New Jersey history and the fifth-largest Mega Millions jackpot ever awarded.
NJ Draw Game Odds
While multi-state games capture headlines with their enormous jackpots, New Jersey's state-specific games offer significantly better odds of winning, albeit with more modest prizes.
Jersey Cash 5
- Jackpot odds: 1 in 1,221,759
- Overall odds of winning any prize: 1 in 25.71
- Cost per play: $1
- Drawing schedule: Daily at 10:57 PM ET
Jersey Cash 5 generated $176 million in sales during fiscal year 2025 and produced 65 jackpot winners, with 13 jackpots worth at least $1 million. The game's daily drawing schedule provides frequent opportunities to win, making it popular among regular players.
Pick-6 Lotto
- Jackpot odds: Approximately 1 in 13.9 million
- Overall odds with XTRA option: 1 in 7
- Cost per play: $1 ($2 with XTRA)
- Drawing schedule: Monday and Thursday at 7:57 PM ET
Pick-6 jackpots start at $2 million and grow until won. During 2025, the game generated four jackpots over $5 million, including a $32 million jackpot win.
Cash4Life
- Top prize odds: 1 in 21,846,048
- Overall odds: 1 in 8
- Cost per play: $2
- Drawing schedule: Daily at 9:00 PM ET
Cash4Life offers a unique prize structure: $1,000 per day for life for matching all five numbers plus the Cash Ball, and $1,000 per week for life as the second prize. During 2025, Cash4Life generated a $7 million prize win in New Jersey.
Daily Number Games: Pick-3 and Pick-4
These daily draw games offer the best odds among all New Jersey lottery draw games:
- Top prize odds: 1 in 1,000
- Cost per play: $0.50 to $1
- Drawing schedule: Twice daily at 12:59 PM and 7:57 PM ET
- Top prize odds: 1 in 10,000
- Cost per play: $0.50 to $1
- Drawing schedule: Twice daily at 12:59 PM and 7:57 PM ET
These games are particularly popular among players who prefer more frequent, smaller wins rather than chasing massive jackpots.
Scratch-Off Odds
Scratch-off or instant games represent the highest-revenue category for the New Jersey Lottery, generating $1.8 billion in sales during fiscal year 2025. These games offer immediate results and a wide range of price points and prize structures.
The odds structure of scratch-offs varies significantly based on ticket price:
- $20-30 tickets: Generally return about 70-85 cents per dollar spent
- $1-5 tickets: Typically return only 50-60 cents on average
Games like Colossal Crossword and Jackpot Millions offer overall odds of 1 in 3.40, representing some of the most favorable odds available for instant games. However, these overall odds include many smaller prizes that may not exceed the ticket price.
An important consideration with scratch-offs is that the expected value changes as top prizes are claimed. Checking the remaining prizes on the New Jersey Lottery website before purchasing is critical for maximizing your chances of winning meaningful prizes.
Recent Winning Trends in New Jersey
The year 2025 was particularly notable for New Jersey lottery winners, with nearly 900 players winning prizes of at least $10,000. These significant wins were distributed remarkably evenly across the state's 21 counties, with every county experiencing at least seven winners of $10,000 or more.
When adjusted for population, most counties demonstrated winning rates near the statewide average of approximately one $10,000-plus winner for every 10,000 residents. Warren County notably exceeded this average with one big winner per 6,800 residents.
More than 60 prizes of $1 million or more were awarded in New Jersey during 2025, but mid-tier prizes ranging from $10,000 to several hundred thousand dollars actually accounted for the majority of significant wins. This distribution pattern suggests that while jackpot-level wins remain extremely rare, meaningful prizes are awarded with surprising regularity throughout the state.
Tax Implications for New Jersey Lottery Winners
Winning the lottery in New Jersey comes with significant tax obligations that substantially reduce the actual amount received:
- New Jersey state tax: 5% for prizes between $10,001 and $500,000; 8% for prizes exceeding $500,000
- Federal tax: 24% automatically withheld for prizes exceeding $5,000, with potential additional tax due at filing time depending on tax bracket
For major jackpots, the combined federal and state tax burden can exceed 40% of the prize amount. Additionally, winners must choose between lump-sum and annuity payout options:
- Lump-sum option: Provides an immediate one-time payment substantially less than the advertised jackpot (typically 50-60% of the advertised amount)
- Annuity option: Spreads payments over approximately 30 years with increasing amounts designed to account for inflation
For example, the $1.13 billion Mega Millions jackpot won in New Jersey in 2024 offered a cash lump-sum value of $537.5 million (about 48% of the advertised jackpot), which was further reduced by taxes.
Responsible Play and Problem Gambling Resources
While most people can enjoy lottery games responsibly as entertainment, problem gambling represents a significant concern for some participants. The National Council on Problem Gambling reports that nearly 20 million American adults experience at least one problematic gambling behavior "many times" in the past year.
The New Jersey Lottery cooperates with the Council on Compulsive Gambling of NJ and promotes the helpline number 1-800-GAMBLER on all marketing materials. If you experience difficulty controlling expenditures, prioritize gambling over other responsibilities, or use gambling to escape negative emotions, consider reaching out for assistance.
Understanding the Real Odds
The odds of winning the New Jersey Lottery vary dramatically depending on which game you play, ranging from 1 in 1,000 for Pick-3 to 1 in 292,201,338 for the Powerball jackpot. State-specific games generally offer substantially better odds than multi-state games, though with more modest prizes.
Understanding these odds requires recognizing that lottery participation functions primarily as entertainment rather than as a viable wealth-building strategy. The mathematical expectation is universally negative across all lottery games, but the psychological appeal of imagining potential windfalls drives continued participation.
For those who choose to play, approaching lottery games with realistic expectations and responsible habits is essential. Set a specific entertainment budget, choose games with more favorable odds if winning frequency is important to you, and remember that the primary value of lottery participation lies in the momentary pleasure of possibility rather than in realistic financial returns.
