NFL Playoffs - Conference Final Picks
Last week there were four playoff games and three betting opportunities - straight up, ATS, and over/under. For the week we went 7-5. We had a great Saturday going 5-1 only missing the Patriots-Jaguars over/under. We won't discuss Sunday's playoff games, unless you can set me to mute.
The NFL Conference Championship Games gives us another bite at the apple. While the matchups of Patriots/Chargers and Packers/Giants may not have been the way you expected the NFL playoffs to unfold, it's the cards we've been dealt. Pick up your wallet, unrumple your office pool and take the playoff upsets in stride. There's another week of football games to handicap.
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots
New England -13.5 O/U 47
Weather: Cold and windy
The Patriots are the story. They've run through the 2007 NFL schedule without a scratch. Dismantled everyone's NFL playoff darkhorse, Jacksonville, and are only waiting coronation as the greatest team in NFL history. There's one small bump and that's the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers had one chance already to knock off the Patriots this year. They were eviscerated. But that was Week 2 in the NFL schedule many miles from where we are now. The Chargers have grown in recent weeks. The reason for that growth is the acquisition of Chris Chambers who gives the Chargers an NFL-cailiber wide receiver. And the new Chargers coaching staff finally understood that LaDainian Tomlinson and Shawn Merriman could play football. Recently, they allowed them to play. This does not answer the most important question... who will win the game?
The Patriots love to pass the football. They can run but have such a great passing game that many football games resemble a game of catch between friends on a Sunday afternoon. The only thing that's disrupted the passing game this season has been a good pass rush and weather. San Diego has a good pass rush, led by the HGH-fueled Merriman, and the weather will be windy. This adds a little pressure to Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and friends.
The other issue the Patriots face is their play against the run. Their defense has had issues against the run, especially against Baltimore. The Chargers have the best RB in the NFL in Tomlinson. And while the Patriots have challenges before a return to the Super Bowl is clinched, the Chargers have more. The biggest challenge they have is health. Tomlinson, quaterback Phillip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates are all coming off injuries; Tomlinson and Rivers missed parts of last week's playoff game. And if the players are healthy enough to play the other challenges they have are Phillip Rivers ability to play at a high enough level to win and whether the linebackers and secondary are able to cover all the receivers that the Patriots employ.
Here's how it goes down: Patriots struggle to get going in the first half and fall behind 10-7 at the half. There's plenty of talk about the 1972 Miami Dolphins opening the champagne. In the second half, Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk share a dozen catches, Laurence Maroney runs for 50-plus yards and Randy Moss runs free for a long score. Plus, Assante Samuel steals a Rivers pass for a 42-yard score. Does this sound familiar? It seems to be the last six games they've played. We expect more of the same.
Patriots giving 13.5 and Over
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Packers -7.5 O/U40
Weather: Bitter cold, some wind and flurries (football weather)
Raise your hand if you thought the New York Giants would be in the NFL Conference Championship game with the Super Bowl only 60 minutes away. Put your hand down, Tom Coughlin. The team was battered after giving a more than honest effort in Week 17 of the NFL schedule. They were thought to be cannn fodder for a Tampa team that was rested and healthy. Wrong! And putty in the hands of the more talented Dallas Cowboys. Wrong-em boyo! Now the Packers with a great running game, fine defense, unbearable weather and the greatest QB in NFL history are in the way. Will the Giants dance with the prince before the clock strikes midnight? Sorry about that Cinderella reference couldn't help myself.
For this streak to continue the Giants defensive line and linebackers have to hold up under the assault of the Packers' balanced offensive attack. They have to get to Brett Favre. And keep Ryan Grant in check. Then, and most importantly, the offense has to hold onto the ball. We're looking right at you, Eli Manning. If they can control the ball there's a chance at victory. But the Packers are the toughest team they've played since giving up a 12-point lead to the Patriots. And it's hard to win three games on the road, especially three games against quality teams. The Giants are playing over their heads. And need to keep that up to be fitted for the glass slipper. Sorry.
We don't see it happening. We see a Packers team that's playing at a much higher level since adding Grant. A team that will move the ball against the Giants who in the secnd half will suddenly realize that they're tired, that it's cold and that they'd love mom to make some hot chocolate.
Packers giving 7.5 and Under